Tesla's Fourth Quarterly Deliveries

Tesla is eagerly awaiting the release of its fourth quarterly deliveries report. This report holds significant importance for the company as it strives to recover from a lackluster third quarter and fend off competition from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers in its bid to remain the world's largest battery electric vehicle maker.

Anticipated Record Breaking Figures

Market analysts are expecting Tesla to report an impressive delivery figure between 475,000 and 480,000 units. If achieved, this would surpass the record of 466,000 deliveries set in the second quarter of 2023. It would also mark a substantial rebound from the 435,000 deliveries made in the preceding quarter. A delivery number above 475,000 is likely to have a positive impact on Tesla's stock performance.

Volatility in Stock Prices

However, it is crucial to note that anything can happen following the release of the report. Tesla's stock prices have historically displayed volatility in response to delivery reports. In the last eight instances, stock prices have fluctuated by an average of around 7% either upwards or downwards. Out of these eight reports, the stock experienced three drops and five rises.

Rise and Fall: The Past Report Reactions

The most significant rise occurred after the delivery report for the fourth quarter of 2021 when the stock soared by almost 14%. Conversely, the largest drop followed the fourth quarter of 2022 deliveries when the stock plummeted by over 12%. Although this is a limited sample size, it suggests that the stock price reaction following a delivery report is often aligned with the overall performance of the stock in the month leading up to the report.

Current Picture

Currently, Tesla shares have witnessed a modest 2% increase over the past month. Based on historical patterns, this rise would have a slightly positive impact on Tesla's stock. However, it is worth noting that this 2% increase is the smallest observed move coming into a delivery report out of the last eight quarters.

Tesla's Stock Performance

In terms of annual performance, Tesla stock experienced a remarkable 102% growth in 2023, following a steep decline of 65% in 2022. By comparison, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indices achieved gains of approximately 43% and 24% respectively.

It is important to highlight that the drop in 2022 marks only the second time Tesla's stock has fallen in a calendar year since its initial public offering (IPO) in 2010. Notably, shares achieved an astounding 740% increase in 2020, coinciding with the introduction of the Model Y, which is expected to become the highest-selling car worldwide by the end of 2023.