Bull Run Analysis 2024

Investors have been reaping the rewards of a strong bull run in the market, with record closes and significant gains. However, as time goes on, questions arise about the sustainability of this upward trend.

Current Market Performance

Despite a slight dip in the S&P 500 on Wednesday, the index recently achieved its third-highest level in history. The year 2024 has already seen 13 record closes, building upon the momentum of 2023's impressive 24% rally.

Confidence in Continued Growth

While some investors are wary of a potential pullback, experts like Pat Tschosik from Ned Davis Research remain optimistic. Tschosik points out that the current bull run, lasting 344 days, is still below the historical average of 694 days dating back to 1930. This suggests that there could be more room for growth in the market.

Support for Further Upside

Beyond historical data, other factors support the argument for continued market ascent. Investor sentiment, growth expectations, and stable economic indicators all indicate a favorable environment for further gains. Technical analysts also highlight the positive trends seen in January and the historical tendency for strong returns in election years.

Chart Analysis Insights

Tschosik emphasizes the significance of analyzing charts to gauge market trends. Companies or indices that have surpassed 50% of their average days without a significant correction and continue to reach new highs often indicate a prolonged uptrend with more potential for growth.

Noteworthy Performers

Among the S&P 500 components, several companies stand out for their endurance without a major correction since October 2020. Travelers leads the pack with 992 days, followed closely by PepsiCo with 990 days. Meanwhile, Eli Lilly holds the record for the shortest run at 834 days.

In conclusion, while concerns about market sustainability persist, various indicators suggest that there may still be room for the ongoing rally to continue its upwards trajectory.

Insurance Industry Tops the List

The roster shines with names from the insurance sector, headlined by Travelers and including other big players such as March & McLennan, Arthur J. Gallagher, Chubb, Globe Life, Everest Group, Arch Capital Group, and Hartford Financial Services Group.

Equities Facing Corrections

All 19 companies on the list are facing corrections of at least 15% since 2020. Despite the tech sector's previous dominance, the recent pullback has caused only one tech giant to make the cut: International Business Machines, securing the penultimate spot with an impressive 836-day streak.

IBM's Record Run

International Business Machines, commonly known as IBM, is in its fourth-longest run, just a year away from surpassing its record of 1,083 days set back in 2013. The company's strategic shift towards cloud technology and artificial intelligence has propelled its stock to an 11-year peak.

Market Update

While IBM thrives, the Nasdaq Composite is striving to reclaim its all-time high after finishing marginally below the peak on Tuesday—an optimistic outlook despite recent turbulence. Even amid market uncertainties, historical trends reveal that downturns are typically followed by new upward trends.

In conclusion, the stock market's dynamism dictates that no equities or indexes ascend perpetually. However, resilient organizations manage to weather obstacles and pave the way for long-lasting success.